Our season’s peak came in the first five minutes of the first Keith Curle derby of the season. That it’s been downhill in the subsequent 2,785 minutes says a lot about our season so far (that was also the last time we ended a match with a positive seasonal goal difference).
But, it is safe to say that Sheffield United’s season has gone downhill at a quicker rate. Last season, they may have marginally overperformed their underlying numbers (finishing with a goal difference of 0, compared to a -6 expected goal difference). But that didn’t suggest the type of implosion we’ve seen this season, with The Blades being worthy of their relegation zone position.
There hasn’t been a tremendous amount of hope at all this season. Their numbers have been poor throughout the season and have declined further since the sacking of Chris Wilder.
In fact, their numbers over the last six games are extremely poor - conceding nearly 2.5 goals worth of chances makes it very difficult to get anything at all. Especially if you couple that with creating just 0.65 goals worth of chances per 90. The three points earned in that time haven’t been wholly deserved.
So what’s gone wrong? Well first of all, they don’t score enough goals. They are bottom for shots, shots on target and goals scored per match, and 18th and 19th for xG per match and shots per goal scored, respectively. The chances they create are not awful, but they are not producing enough of them.
And the chances that they are creating, they are not taking.
All of their strikers have suffered from not taking chances. Between them, Oli McBurnie, Rhian Brewster and Oliver Burke have an NPxG of 6.8. Not great, but a lot better than the two goals they have between them. If one of them had managed to support David McGoldrick (six goals from 5.2 NPxG), they might have given themselves slightly more of a fighting chance.
Defensively, they are slightly better but are still in the bottom-3 for shots on target conceded, xG against and goals against per 90. It’s not a defence that will get the lukewarm attack out of trouble.
This is quite the difference from last season. Indeed, with seven games to go, they have already a far worse defensive record this season (55 conceded from 51 xGA) compared to last season 39 conceded from 47.9 xGA).
One reason for this is swapping Aaron Ramsdale for Dean Henderson. Now, Ramsdale has been fine this season - he’s conceded 52 non-penalty goals from 51.1 post-shot expected goals (this measures shot quality and how likely a goalkeeper is to save a shot). But last season, Henderson was exceptional - he saved five more goals than the average keeper, sixth-best in the league. It makes Ramsdale look worse than he is, as he’s being compared to a keeper who had an excellent season.
The most worrying aspect of their defence for Paul Heckingbottom will be how it has worsened since he took over. Working on a way to keep the chances out is surely his priority right now.
If we look at our defensive record against Sheffield United on the road, we have been the better team both upfront and at the back:
All of this means that we should be extremely short favourites to win: