Wolves v Newcastle: An Analytical Preview
The Mike Williamson derby
We all know today’s game will finish 1-1. It always finishes 1-1. It’s like we’re in some kind of time loop, where the only way to escape it is to finish a league game without the score being 1-1.
But, how will we arrive at that 1-1 result?
Newcastle is again doing that thing where they play poorly but are outside the relegation zone:
Newcastle is largely conceding around 2 goals worth of chances a match, one of the worst records in the league. But, they are creating chances, with an xG of around 1.3 per match. If they continue to do this for the season, it should be enough to keep them from relegation trouble.
But they have not actually won a game yet, with their xG data being worse than ours across the six games played so far.
Perhaps the most worrying aspect, though, is how our goal creation stats have dipped over the last couple of weeks:
In fact, Newcastle actually has better stats than we do going forward. The underlying data is relatively similar - we have taken a similar number of shots of similar quality, leading to a virtually identical xG per match. But they are turning 1.3 goals worth of chances per match into 1.2 goals - we are scoring half a goal per match at the moment.
It won’t surprise you to know that Allan Saint-Maximin is their primary threat, having a direct hand in five of their seven games. But with Callum Wilson injured, Saint-Maximin is carrying much of Newcastle’s attacking threat on his own.
(as an aside, Saint-Maximin and Adama Traore are two of only seven players to have completed more than 20 dribbles across the Big-5 European leagues this season. And Traore has completed 40…)
Defensively though, we are far better. We give up fewer shots of worse quality.
And our defensive performance is helped by our goalkeeper starting the season very well, having a positive impact on our defending. Newcastle, on the other hand, is struggling with this a little.
Overall, we just about have the edge, especially if we can shut down Saint-Maximin from playing. And this is why the official Wolves Analytics prediction is… a 1-1 draw.
