Wolves v Manchester United Analytical Preview
The final Wolves Analytics preview of the Nuno era
The first #CameronBorthwickJohnsonDerby of the season was a tight affair. Edinson Cavani missed the big chance before Marcus Rashford fluked one with virtually the last kick of the game.
It won’t surprise you to know that United have been the better team this season. They will finish the season in second place, but this slightly overstates how good they have been this season.
Of course, after a slow start, they have been better than we have throughout the season.
Upfront, they have been quite a lot better, ranking in the top-4 on several metrics:
They create lots of shots and generally make lots of chances. Their relatively low xG for per shot will be distorted slightly by their preference for long-range shooting. No one comes close to Bruno Fernandes’ 73 shots from outside the penalty area this season (only 13 players have more shots in total).
Marcus Rashford has been the primary goal threat, with 9.3 non-penalty expected goals this season. Saying that, Edinson Cavani has undoubtedly made his presence felt, with 0.48 NPxG per 90, the sixth highest in the league of players to have played at least 1,000 minutes.
They have defended relatively well at the other end of the pitch, although perhaps more Europa League than Champions League. Saying that they are better than us at most metrics; we give up marginally worse chances, but there is not a lot in it.
But throughout the season, both clubs have given up a relatively similar amount of chances. But where our defence has been relatively consistent throughout, United’s defences started poorly but improved as the season went on.
With David de Gea set to play in the Europa League final, Dean Henderson will likely be in goal at Molineux. Henderson has marginally had the better shot-stopping season, but there is very little in it. It’s not a massive surprise that Henderson seems to be winning the battle to be the first choice next season. Or that a new goalkeeper may well be on Solksjaer’s shopping list this summer.
United’s recent form has been fine, although better than a run of eight points from the last six games would suggest.
Even though we have won only one fewer point in that time, the data suggests that we have been a far worse team. And from an attacking perspective, one of the worst teams in the league.
And we finally come to the fact that United have been excellent away from home. Indeed, avoiding defeat at Molineux will see them become the fourth team to complete an unbeaten season away from home. United on the road is a far better team than we are at Molineux.
And so, the data suggest that United should be clear favourites.
Of course, this does not consider potential squad changes ahead of the Europa League final or a Wolves squad wanting to see Nuno off in style (or put themselves into the shop window).