Wolves v Burnley Match Preview
Last time in the Marlon Beresford derby, Burnley edged a close-ish game 2-1, but in truth, it was not until late on that we really laid a glove on them:
Burnley is perhaps a little fortunate not to be more involved in this season’s relegation battle. (Although given that I say this every year, maybe Sean Dyche knows something no-one else does):
Despite the defeat at Turf Moor earlier in the season, we have consistently been a better side. However, Burnley’s recent form has picked up slightly.
The recent upturn in form can in part be attributed to an improvement in their goalscoring:
They have created better chances than they have taken this season. All four of their forwards have been either wasteful or unlucky in front of goal, depending on your view:
All told, Burnley’s attacking output must be a cause for concern. They create relatively decent chances (13th best in the league), but it takes them 12 shots to score a goal. When considering the ages of their forwards, this is surely an area that needs freshening.
As per usual, Burnley’s defence has been largely fine, conceding the 14th fewest goals in the league. Their defensive tactics are not unlike ours. Only West Brom give up more shots per game, but only Tottenham and Aston Villa concede goals at a lesser rate than Burnley’s conceding a goal every 10.4 shots.
This should not be a huge surprise, as Nick Pope has consistently stopped more goals than the average goalkeeper over the past three seasons:
Burnley’s defence has been relatively consistent throughout the season - while the goals conceded have highs and lows, the xG conceded per match has generally been between 1-1.5. This has risen slightly in recent weeks - combine with this with slightly increased attacking numbers, and it appears that Burnley’s tactical focus may have shifted somewhat.
Burnley have not been particularly good away from home - we have better numbers across the board at Molineux than Burnley do away from Turf Moor.
All told, this leads to a situation where Wolves should be reasonably strong favourites: