In the first Steve Sedgley derby of the season, Spurs scored with their first shot. We fought back, got a deserved equaliser through Romain Saïss, and could easily have won it through Fábio Silva.
That means nothing on Sunday, though. Spurs have been pretty meh for much of the season—an upper-midtable team, nothing special.
Where they do excel is in their ability to score chances. They score every 6.5 shots and rank fourth in the league for goals scored, but only 10th for opportunities created. They are the most clinical team in the country.
They have been overshooting their expected goals throughout the entire season, scoring 10.3 non-penalty goals more than the average team. And if you think that, roughly speaking, one goal = one point, that makes one hell of a difference to their league position.
Son Heung-Min and Gareth Bale have been the biggest beneficiaries, scoring 6.7 and 6 non-penalty goals more than would be expected, respectively. Harry Kane has a mere 1.7 goals more than his xG suggests.
Defensively, the two are teams are relatively similar. We’ve given away fewer shots, and fewer chances overall but have conceded more goals.
The relative form of the two goalkeepers will be contributing to this:
More recently, Spurs have been on a tricky run of form. That won’t surprise you - managers on good runs of form tend not to get the sack:
Indeed, we are better on most metrics over the last six matches. Attacking wise, we have taken more shots (but of lower quality), and as a result, need twice as many shots to score a goal. Bit defensively, we have been far better, giving up fewer shots and far less xGA per match.
But, this is very much balanced out by the fact that Spurs are far better at home than we are away. Out away form is pretty poor, particularly going forward. Defensively, we are fine away from home, but not as strong as a Spurs side at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium:
All in all, and unsurprising to you, that makes Spurs favourites in my book.