Southampton v Wolves Preview
A statistical analysis of the Chris Marsden derby
Now that we are five games in, we are starting to get a little more idea of how teams are doing. Now, it’s still not perfect and is heavily dependent on the teams played so far, so this is a very tentative preview.
Both teams have started relatively well and are doing a little better than the table would suggest.
Southampton has created a similar number of chances but is slightly more porous defensively. They had a poor start, losing deservedly against Everton on the opening day. But their performances have been far better since earning four consecutive draws.
On that opening day, Everton cut through them time after time, but they have tightened up significantly since then:
Going forward, we have mainly been better at creating chances but far worse at scoring them.
It’s worth noting that while we are taking lots of shots, many of them are low quality - our xG per shot of 0.08 is the lowest in the league. And we are very much towards the top of the table for shots from out the penalty area.
Defensively, we have the edge in terms of the number of shots conceded, although this could easily be a function of the amount of time we’ve spent behind in matches - teams with a narrow lead tend not to generate many shots. But, perhaps, most concerning is the quality of shots we’ve conceded (although again, this is maybe a function of the game state - we’ve been chasing games and so leaving space in behind, meaning that the shots we do give away are of high quality).
Overall, we have the edge, but it’s close enough that I would probably be backing the draw.
