Nuno to Bruno: What has changed
With it being an international break, it is the perfect time to look at the start of Bruno Lage’s reign as Wolves manager.
Much has been spoken of a change in style; as captain Conor Coady said:
Now it’s about trying to play through lines and having more of the ball than the opposition. We now play in a totally different way.
So, using the ever-excellent FBREF, let’s have a look at whether these aims have been achieved.
Our possession has indeed improved this season – we have the ball 49.7% of the time this season, more than any of the previous three seasons. However, there has been a bit of a downward trend in recent weeks. It will be interesting to revisit this later in the season.
But what are we doing with the ball? We are clearly aiming to get the ball forward a lot more. We are playing more progressive passes and passes into the final third than we have in previous years. So we are getting the ball into the forward areas more but then struggling to work the ball into the penalty area.
If you are wondering why Romain Saïss is still in the team of Willy Boly, this is the reason:
Saïss has a specific job in the team, receiving the ball in defensive positions and passing it forwards. This is certainly something that we have struggled with in previous seasons, when our primary method of moving the ball forward was through Adama Traoré’s dribbling ability. In fact, our dribbling as a whole is down on previous years:
What is the upshot of this? Well, after a slow start, we are scoring more goals. It’s not particularly difficult to score more goals than we managed last season, but signs here are relatively promising.
But perhaps slightly worrying, the shots that we are taking has taken a real dip. We had a very slow start in 2019/20 as we struggled to reconcile playing both European and domestic football. But we are now at a lower level than then.
Where we have improved is in the quality of shots taken. The first few games of the season saw us take lots of shots from poor shooting positions (often through a crowded penalty area). Taking fewer shots is not necessarily an issue if you can create better chances.
So we can see a change in attacking style, moving away from relying on dribbling to passing the ball forward. But, this is ending up with us struggling slightly to get the ball into the penalty area and a real drop off in terms of shots.
Coady also said
The back-three is a lot higher, we’re nowhere near as deep as we were. A lot of the time we’re man v man, trying to sustain attacks a lot more so when the ball is in the opposition half we’re all the way in.
Let’s have a look at whether this is the case. The defensive numbers in the middle and final thirds of the pitch are slightly up:
But again, looking at the trend data, we can see that we pressed high towards the start of the season but have dropped off since.
In fact, only West Ham and Newcastle press less in the final third of the pitch:
This can be seen when considering where the opposition has the ball. We are happy for them to have the ball in their defensive third but are being more proactive about stopping the ball from reaching our defensive areas.
The issue with this sort of tactic is that if the opposition does break through the midfield, it might then be easier for them to get the ball into our penalty area. Still, we are doing a relatively good job of stopping this:
Part of this may be the form of new goalkeeper José Sá, who so far is more proactive than Rui Patrício in terms of where he interferes with the ball. More recently, though, he is getting closer to goal, which indicates the team dropping off more generally.
So what is this doing in terms of our defensive numbers? Until last season, our defence under Nuno was excellent. And we have started off well under Lage, but it is starting to creep up a little – something to watch out for.
And finally, where does this leave us overall? Where after an impressive start, performances have certainly dropped off a little.
After a really positive start, our performances are below both of Nuno’s first two seasons so far this season. Of course, Lage has a far smaller sample size, but it is clear that there are areas for improvement.