We lost the first #VinnySamwaysDerby of the season by a fairly narrow margin, as Everton did what they do on the road this season.
But, as we will come to, Everton’s home form is very different to their form on the road. That’s for a little bit later, though - first, let’s look at how both clubs compare over the course of the season.
Despite Everton being 11 points ahead of Wolves, the two teams are relative similar:
While Everton has won more matches, they got off to a flying start, and things have been a lot closer over the last 30 games.
In fact, in the second half of the season, both teams have near-identical records:
Much of the positive stories around Everton this season have been about their triumvirate of forwards: Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Richarlison and James Rodríguez. So let’s take a look at the respective attacks.
To the surprise of no one, Everton has a far greater attacking threat. We actually take more shots, but these are of poor quality. The chances that Everton create are around 33% more likely to be scored - this is shown in both the xG For per Shot and the fact that Everton takes 8.2 shots per goal, whereas it takes us 12.5 shots to register.
Richarlison and Calvert-Lewin are the clear beneficiaries of this. Of all players to score five or more goals, Calvert-Lewins 0.2 NPxG per shot is third in the league, behind Edinson Cavani and Tammy Abraham. Put simply, Calvert-Lewin gets into excellent scoring positions.
To put that into context, this season Calvert-Lewin has 10 goals from 20 six-yard box shots. As a club, we have managed 23 six-yard box shots, resulting in one goal. And nine of those shots have come from Willy Boly, Conor Coady and Romain Saïss.
Beyond Calvert-Lewin and Richarlison, there is a bit of a drop-off. If James plays, he might well score, but getting him consistently on the pitch has been a bit of an issue.
We can see Everton’s blistering start to the season; 28% of their goals this season came in the opening five matches. Since then, 32 goals have come in 31 matches. Indeed, Calvert-Lewin has had something of a break-out season, but 10 goals in the opening nine games have been followed by six in the next 22.
But, despite a dip, their attack has still produced more than ours.
At the other end of the pitch, Everton, again perhaps have the edge. We give up slightly fewer shots and slightly better chances. But Everton is conceding fewer goals, and it takes more shots to score past them.
Jordan Pickford has very quietly had a competent season, saving pretty much exactly the amount that you would expect him to, based on the quality of the shots faced:
But, again, looking at Everton’s defence over the course of the season, we can see that it started well but has had some worrying periods of giving up more than 1.5 xG per match. No team looking to qualify for European football should be conceding 1.5 goals worth of chances per match. Conversely, our defence has been much more consistent:
Both teams have flitted between four and five at the back this season, with neither Carlo Ancelotti nor Nuno seemingly fully confident of the defence.
While we have taken more points than Everton over the last six matches (10 v 8), this is perhaps not entirely indicative of both teams’ form:
Indeed, over the last six matches, Everton has had more shots, which are of better quality, and are better than us on every defensive metric:
So, looking at the last six games suggests a comfortable Everton win. But, they have been pretty poor at Goodison Park this season, taking just 19 points from their 18 matches - at 1.05 points per match, that is the lowest in their entire history.
Everton's issues at home have largely been in defence - only Sheffield United and West Brom have given up more chances at their own ground. But, as poor as Everton’s home defence is, our away attack has been pretty pathetic. Only three teams have created fewer chances on the road; only Sheffield United have scored fewer goals. I’m not sure we’re the team to take advantage of Everton’s home defensive woes.
Given that our players are on the beach, Everton still having an outside chance of qualifying for Europe (although whether the UEFA Europa Conference League would be more of a hindrance than a help, I’ll leave it up to you), and fans being in Goodison Park (16% of Everton’s home points have come in front of fans) I make Everton strong favourites to secure a Vinny Samways Derby Double: